Hurricane Sandy hype? (not)

[Bluey]

So the weather channel folks are all excited that one model has this hurricane coming close to the Chesapeake bay. They're saying it could be worse than Irene and may be the perfect storm.

Who's doing what to prepare? Or is this weather channel hype?

[RobS]

I am ordering extra office supplies http://www.schepisadjusting.com

[jleonard]

I'm going to make sure the bar is stocked.

[jcollins]

Halloween could be interesting.

[Chris & Dale]

There's no hype here in Southport, NC, we're taking this seriously as it will be a major wind and rain event, even though it's not making landfall anywhere near us. So it's to the docks, tighten lines, maybe add 1 or 2 more, put out some extra fenders, and double check everything while the winds are calm today. I use IKiteSurf as the most accurate wind predicter I've seen and here's a picture of what it will look like about 2:00 a.m. Sunday morning while we're asleep (we're the southern most tip of NC in the mid-lower quadrant):

Winds 10-28-12.jpg

The color bands range from 28 - 36 mph steady wind, not including gusts. Here's a link for those interested:

http://www.ikitesurf.com/windandwhere.i ... meoffset=1

We've had too many surprises, such as the "No Name Storm" which blew in here and tore us a new one when no one predicted it and resulted in extensive damage. You only have that happen once w/o being prepared from that point on. We're scheduled to have our annual Stede Bonnett Pirate Regatta and Halloween party Sat. night. I think there will be a rain date on that. Anyway, honker down and ride it out to sail another day.

Good Luck to all in Harms Way!

[tbnolin]

Heading to the boat to check the lines...Tropical storm warning in effect for the Treasure Coast....

[jcollins]

A lot can change it a few hours.

[loubennett]

As Dockmaster in my community, I sent out to our residents an email on Sandy this evening. It is based on following the forecast from the National Hurricane Center and my 60 years of experience with storms in the Chesapeake Bay region. The situation with Sandy is still evolving, but the forecast models seem to be converging. We still need to be cautious in the Chesapeake region over the next few days, and preparing for the worst is the best advice right now. Below is the text of the email I sent my neighbors.


As I'm sure you are all aware, hurricane Sandy is headed up the east coast and is predicted to be at our latitude sometime Monday. The latest forecast models put the most probable path about 200 miles off the Maryland / Delaware coast with a landfall somewhere along the northern NewJersey coast around Tuesday. There is some probability, however, that the path will be significantly West of that. If the storm follows the predicted path, it should be pretty much a non-event on the Chesapeake. If, however, it moves West, we could have strong winds and rain. Also, be aware that strong northerly winds (15 to 25 knots) are predicted for the bay Sunday and Monday due to a cold front passing through the region. A westward path for Sandy would reinforce that northerly resulting in gale force winds on the bay.

In the interest that it's better to be prepared for the worst, it is recommended that you secure loose items on your decks. If you have a boat in the marina, ensure that it is securely tied. Double lines are recommended. We could get extreme tides from this event. They will be extreme low tides caused by the strong northerly winds blowing water out of the bay, so be sure your lines have enough slack to allow for very low water. In addition it is recommended to secure canvass and sails in preparation for the storm. A roller furling headsail that unfurls in a storm can get pretty ugly.

The cold front and possibly Sandy could combine to give us very strong northerlies. This is the one direction we are not extremely well protected. The wind will come straight up the creek, so just in case the worst happens, be prepared. I will be keeping an eye on the forecast as it evolves and will send out updates periodically.

[loubennett]

Below is the update on Sandy I sent out this morning. It may be useful to anyone in the Chesapeake region.

The forecast for Sandy has changed significantly overnight.. The timing is about the same with Sandy at our latitude sometime Monday and landfall sometime Tuesday. The difference is that the landfall is now predicted to be near the mouth of Delaware Bay. This is significantly further South and brings the storm closer to us. The effect will be more rain and gale force winds on the Bay. They will still be in the Northern quadrant for the predicted path, so extreme high tides are still not a concern. Further movement South for the landfall could change that.

The major forecast problem right now, aside from the fact that it is difficult to forecast accurately several days out, is that there is significant disagreement between the American models and the European model. The American models have the track and landfall very close to what was being forecast yesterday with landfall in the northern New Jersey area. The European model has a track and landfall that takes the storm to a landfall near the mouth of the Chesapeake. The current forecast is about midway between these. This is a dynamic situation. The models will be run again later today, so I'll give an update this evening after they are available.

The advice remains the same. Prepare for the worst. Winds will be building through Sunday, probably peak late Monday, and continue into Tuesday regardless of which model is correct. The variation will be the wind strength and direction. I recommend you make your preparations, especially for your boat, by the end of the day Saturday. Especially if you have canvass and sails to deal with. The winds will be building on Sunday making preparation more difficult.

[jcollins]

Thank you for the updates Lou. This is one that I'll be watching. Afterglow was pulled yesterday. I called to tell them not to pull the boat. Too late.
My concerns were high tides. When Irene came through most of the boats at our marina "floated" off the blocks and were piled up on the road.

[loubennett]

John, I hope you mean Isabel, not Irene. As I recall Irene passed offshore and blew water out of the Bay. Isabel, on the other hand passed to the West with it's center around Hagerstown, resulting in a large storm surge up the Bay from the resulting Southerly winds.

[jcollins]

Yup. Isabel, not Irene.

[jleonard]

I wish you all well. Attitude Adjustment got shrink wrapped today, or at least I got the e bill today.
Block high and dry where it doesn't flood. I should be able to sit this one out.

[Cape Codder]

She's coming out tomorrow late morning.
I was scheduled anyway.
13 Whaler on the hard too.
It's time.......
Not foolin' with Sandy here on Cape Cod........I know better.......

[kathylsails]

Darn....we thought hurricane season was over! We put extra lines on KP Duty and are hoping that Sandy heads out to sea. Good luck to everyone who is in her path!