Bill

[jcollins]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 200833
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2009

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 60.3W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT.......105NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......200NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 330SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 60.3W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 59.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.0N 62.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...105NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.2N 64.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.8N 66.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.8N 68.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 38.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 225SE 120SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 46.6N 59.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 53.5N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 60.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[RobS]

Sun
NW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 to 15 ft...subsiding to 8 to 11 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.

Perfect day for boogy boarding in the surf, thanks Bill

[Veebyes2]

Predicting monster surf here. Already pretty big. Closest point for us is 0700 tomorrow. Tropical storm force wind. Jim Cantore is here so it could be worse.

[jcollins]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 211447
TCMAT3
HURRICANE BILL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2009

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 66.3W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT.......130NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..475NE 360SE 350SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 66.3W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.8N 67.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 33.0N 68.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...100NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 36.5N 68.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 90NW.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 105NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 105NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 48.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...225NE 250SE 200SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 53.5N 27.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 57.5N 10.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 66.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA