Hurricane Sandy hype? (not)

[loubennett]

Here's my update on Sandy for this evening. This continues to be a significant weather event for the Chesapeake.

The various models are beginning to converge. The net result is not much different than my morning update, but they do seem to reduce the probability of landfall south of us. The forecast is still for landfall near the mouth of Delaware Bay, but the timing has slowed. peak effects in our area are now expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Landfall looks like early Tuesday. The approaching cold front is the big confusion factor in the forecast. Sandy's interaction with that may transform it from a tropical storm to a Nor'easter. For all practical purposes, it doesn't matter. The effect on our weather is the same. We can expect to experience heavy rainfall starting late Sunday and winds peaking around 50 knots on the Bay on Tuesday. All in all a few nasty days. Given this forecast, storm surge is still not a concern. Extreme low tides are more likely on the Bay. The situation remains dynamic. Stay tuned for updates as things evolve

The advice remains the same. Prepare for the worst. In spite of the delay in landfall of the storm, I still recommend you prepare your boat on Saturday. Sunday will be a blustery day for reasons not really attributable to Sandy, but the cold front.

I've had one request to reveal my sources for the information I've been using in these emails. Its pretty simple. All information on these storms originate with the National Hurricane Center. I watch their information and add my personal experience with how these storms affect the Bay. I'm really just trying to take a large scale forecast and interpret the effects it will have on our local area. Any local weatherman does the same thing, I just try to remove the hype.

[jcollins]

Thank you for the sane weather advice.

[loubennett]

Saturday morning update.

The latest information on Sandy has not changed much since last night. The storm is predicted to be due East of Cape Hatteras early Monday morning and make landfall on the Southern New Jersey coast late Monday night in the vicinity of Atlantic City. This is slightly North of yesterdays prediction. The American and European models have converged significantly, but are still not in full agreement on the location of the landfall so there continues to be a wide uncertainty. The good news for us is that the bulk of the convergence of the models is the result of the European model prediction moving North. For us, the further North the landfall the better. Sandy, however is a very widespread storm with tropical storm force winds and rain extending hundreds of miles from the center. Even if landfall for the center moves as far North as Long Island, we will still see significant effects, but with lower wind velocities and probably less rain. Currently we are expected to have our worst weather from late Monday through Tuesday with peak winds on the Bay in excess of 50 knots. If the current predicted path happens, the winds will start to build out of the North Sunday into Monday. As the storm approaches landfall in Southern New Jersey, the winds will move to the Northwest. After landfall, our winds will move to the West and then Southwest before dissipating. None of these directions raises a great concern for storm surge in the northern part of the Chesapeake. A surge of 1 to 3 ft is expected in the Norfolk area as the storm passes Cape Hatteras early Monday morning.

The advice remains the same. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. The exact location of the landfall should become clear in the next 24 to 48 hours. Hopefully it moves further North than the current prediction.

[Bluey]

The warnings of up to 8" of rain plus gusts to 65mph was too much: Bluey got hauled yesterday. Hardly anyone at the marina where she's docked (and which doesn't haul or store on the hard). Just one guy buffing a SeaRay in preparation for a trip to Florida, and another fellow taking care of his sails. OTOH, the guys at marina where Bluey was hauled were hopping around like a one legged man in a butt kicking contest. By 11 they had hauled a couple and had a couple in the well. Most of the boats were coming round today (Saturday). In talking to a couple people, it sounds like all the professional captains were booked solid, taking boats to storage areas.

[jcollins]

latest update

[Marcy K]

Our A 34 Paumanok was pulled yesterday but not shrink wrapped yet. We spent the day doing all we could to help her through it. Overheard 2 Brewers Pilots Point (Westbrook CT) employees saying they are pretty sure some of the boats on the hard will float and to leave the plugs out!!!! The storm surge is being compared with the hurricane of 1938 - worst in the last 100 years. Some boats are in - its a toss-up as to which way to go - float up and over the pilings (came within 2' during Irene) or float around the yard. Good luck to all in her path.

Marcy K
A 34 Paumanok
Pilots Point, Westbrook CT

[jcollins]

I'm comfortable at this point saying that we will have low tides. It looks like it's going to come ashore at Delaware Bay or south Jersey, missing the Chesapeake. We'll have high winds but not the surge.
I'll wait for Lou's Sunday update.

[loubennett]

Saturday evening update. Please remember these are copies of emails to my neighbors and some of the content may not apply to you. But then again, it may.

This evenings's report on Sandy shows little change from this morning. It appears the landfall has moved a little to the North. This is good news for us, but doesn't significantly change the local forecast.There may be more clarity tomorrow morning, but the storm is still over 500 miles away. One of the reasons you hear all the hype in the media is that Sandy is a very large storm area wise. Just for example, it is already causing rain on the lower eastern shore with the center over 500 miles away. Tropical storm force winds extend hundreds of miles from the center. We are in for a couple of days of really nasty weather.

Just this afternoon several KJL residents said they were worried about the water rising. I don't expect that effect from Sandy. It is passing to the East and the counterclockwise circulation will pump water out of the Bay. An extreme low tide is far more likely. The only exception is as the storm passes the entrance to the Bay, some water may be pumped in. The timing of this will be very early Monday morning. I think the predicted storm path is far enough offshore that this effect will be minimal. The National Weather Service seems to agree based on the predictions I have seen. Just in case I'm wrong, I may turn the power off at the dock Sunday night, just as a precaution.

The advice remains the same. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. I surveyed the dock this evening. It is evident that some of our residents have taken measures to prepare for the storm. Others have not. I hope everyone will take this storm seriously. It doesn't hurt to put some extra lines on your boat, even if it turns out to be an unnecessary precaution. Take a little time to make sure everything is secure, The most important things are to double lines just in case something breaks and allow enough slack in the lines so that your boat can move up and down with any water level changes.

[loubennett]

Sunday morning update. Again, I'm copying the email I sent to my neighborhood.

The center of Sandy is about 400 miles South of us. We are experiencing the first effects this morning. The wind on the Bay is about 25 knots and will increase as we go through the day. Wind will be stronger tomorrow with the potential for 50 knots and higher gusts. Strong winds will continue Tuesday, even after the storm makes landfall about midway on the New Jersey coast. Through Monday, the wind will be North to Northwest. Tuesday it will move to West and Southwest with the exact direction depending on the path of the storm after it comes ashore. Throughout this event will be heavy rain with predictions of 3 to 5 inches in our area. Sandy is a huge storm in area. Even with the landfall about 150 miles North of us, the strong wind fied extends hundreds of miles from the center.

Storm surge continues to not be a concern through Monday. Depending on the behavior of the storm after landfall, with the wind moving to the Southwest and possibly South, there is some potential of above normal tides on Tuesday. This is a situation we need to monitor since it is very early to predict the exact path after landfall.

Hopefully everyone is prepared. I checked the dock this morning and everything is fine. I will likely turn the power off at the dock this evening. This is purely precautionary as I don't expect high water at least through Monday. I just want to be safe in case something unexpected happens over night. There are still boats at the dock that have done nothing to prepare for the storm. It may be totally unnecessary, but it doesn't take long to double up lines just in case. I recommend you get that done today along with making sure canvass and sails are secure.

[furball]

Pulled out yesterday morning. Not planning on putting back in this year.
I hate missing the next 2 months, best fishing of the year but I figure the Bay
is going to look like a mud puddle in a week and I've hit enough stuff in the bay...
Good luck to everyone, especially those of you riding it out.
John

[loubennett]

Sundy evening update. This is a copy of an email to my neighbors. The comments that refer to the dock, refer to the dock in my community.

There is not much change in the forecast this evening. There does seem to be a landfall prediction somewhat South of what it looked like earlier. Sandy is now expected to make landfall sometime late Monday night or early Tuesday morning in the vicinity of Atlantic City. The outlook for the Bay remains the same. Tomorrow will be a nasty day with heavy rain and potentially 50 knot winds with higher gusts. Storm surge should not be an issue through tomorrow. There is a potential for some surge on Tuesday after the storm is well inshore and passes to our North. The prediction is for a two foot surge. When this is added to maximum Astronomical high tide, the water will be only about a foot below the top of the dock. This situation needs to be monitored and boat owners should ensure that their dock lines allow their boats to move up with the tide.

The worst of this storm is yet to come throughout tomorrow and Tuesday. Please be prepared. A survey of the dock this evening showed that some boats have had no attention in preparation for the storm. There isn't much time left. Please check them tomorrow morning at the latest. Also, some decks were still showing erected umbrellas and such. Please secure them before they become missiles that could damage windows or vehicles.

[DougSea]

Well, this is going to be interesting to say the least. Sonny is all secure in her slip, the issue is, how secure is the marina? We are looking at forecast storm surges of 6-11 FEET!! If it's that bad it really wouldn't matter if she was on the hard or on the docks, because everything will be floating. Sigh...

Went down today and took most of my tools and such off. May go one last time tonight and see if there's anything there that I'd be upset to lose. Upset being a relative term, because none of this is making me happy!

[RobS]

If I were closer I would strongly consider going all the way up the Thames Rvr to the American Wharf, its the ideal hurricane hole, strong floaters and VERY tall pilings.

[Carl]

Had the boat pulled on Friday and glad I did. When the winds turn around on Tuesday it will be ugly where I am.


ANZ540-290800-
EASTERN BAY-
841 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING


TONIGHT
N WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. GUSTS UP TO 40 KT... INCREASING TO
50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES 6 FT. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

MON
N WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. WAVES 7 FT. RAIN.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.

MON NIGHT
NW WINDS 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT. WAVES 8 FT.
RAIN. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

TUE
SW WINDS 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 70 KT. WAVES 7 FT. RAIN.

TUE NIGHT
SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT...DIMINISHING
TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WAVES 4 FT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

WED
SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WAVES 2 TO 3 FT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

WED NIGHT
W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING.
WAVES 1 FT.

THU
W WINDS 10 KT. WAVES 1 FT.

FRI
NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. WAVES 1 FT.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[loubennett]

Here is the update I sent to my neighbors this morning.

This morning Sandy is behaving pretty much as predicted. There are, however, an important update to the prediction for storm surge.

Sandy is predicted to move west through Southern Pennsylvania after landfall. This movement will put it to our Northwest tomorrow, resulting in Southwest and possibly South winds on the Bay. This raises the possibility of some storm surge up the Bay. The current prediction from NOAA puts the high water for Annapolis at 4 feet above Mean Lower Low Water at high tide tomorrow afternoon. The magnitude of the surge will depend on the exact path and the intensity of the storm at that time. If the current prediction holds, the water will rise to just below the dock.

If you haven't already done so, either adjust the lines on your boat to allow for this upward movement or be prepared to adjust them prior prior to tomorrow morning's high tide. The water level for the morning tide is not predicted to be as high as the afternoon high tide, but still above normal. I still recommend doubling your lines. Winds this afternoon and evening will reach 50 knots with higher gusts and there are a number of boats in the marina that have not doubled the lines. Also ensure that umbrellas and deck furniture are secure.

Please take this seriously. You are responsible for any damage your boat causes to the dock or other boats. Your boat is your responsibility. Don't expect me or anyone else to take care of it.